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| Construction and evaluation of an early screening model for stroke in community populations in Tianjin area |
| Hits 170 Download times 79 Received:May 03, 2025 |
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| DOI
10.11656/j.issn.1673-9043.2025.11.01 |
| Key Words
cerebral stroke;constitution of traditional Chinese medicine;integration of traditional Chinese and Western medicine;screening model |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | YANG Ji | Department of Emergency, South Campus, First Teaching Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin 300381, China
National Clinical Research Center for Acupuncture and Moxibustion, Tianjin 300381, China | | | ZHANG Yao | Department of Emergency, South Campus, First Teaching Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin 300381, China
National Clinical Research Center for Acupuncture and Moxibustion, Tianjin 300381, China | | | ZHANG Qiuyue | Department of Geriatrics, Second Affiliated Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin 300250, China | | | ZHAO Yingqiang | Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin 300250, China | zhaoyingqiang1000@126.com。 |
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| Abstract
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| [Objective] To investigate the influencing factors of stroke prevalence in Tianjin area and construct an integrated Chinese and Western medicine early screening model for stroke in community population.[Methods] Using annual physical examination data of community residents,propensity score matching(PSM) was employed to match subjects by age and gender,establishing a standardized database that was randomly divided into training and test sets at an 8:2 ratio. Predictive factors were screened through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to build the model. Internal validation used the Bootstrap method to evaluate model fit,sensitivity,and specificity,while external validation assessed the model's discrimination and calibration,with comparison to a Western medicine indicators-only model.[Results] From 24 792 community residents with complete archival data,1 376 stroke patients and 1 376 non-stroke patients were matched,including 2 202 cases in the training set and 550 cases in the test set. The model achieved an AUC of 0.891,with sensitivity and specificity of 70.57% and 94.10% respectively. Calibration curve and clinical decision analysis showed good predictive performance of the model,which was significantly improved after incorporating Traditional Chinese Medicine constitution variables.[Conclusion] The integrated Chinese and Western medicine early screening model for stroke based on community physical examination data demonstrates good clinical predictive performance,can effectively assess stroke risk in community residents,and has important value for early diagnosis. |
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